May CBOT soybeans pushed to a moderately firmer close Tuesday, ahead of Wednesday's release of the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Analysts expect the USDA will forecast lower domestic stockpiles in Wednesday's supply-and-demand report. The USDA is expected to lower its outlook for inventories to 139 million bushels, down from 145 million in a March report, according to analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.
Technically, May soybeans have been "coiling" in a fairly tight range since April 2. The top of that range lies at $14.96 and the bottom lies at $14.56 and those remain the key resistance and support zones to monitor near term.
The primary trend is bullish for May soybeans and the recent "coiling" action could be a type of potential "bull flag" formation. But, a strong and sustained rally and close above $14.96 would be needed to confirm a bullish flag.
Last week, the market did post an upside breakout from a bullish continuation triangle formation on the daily chart, and that remains intact for now. The triangle targets multiday to multiweek gains to the $15.50 area.
On the downside, declines under support at $14.60-14.56 would be a short-term bearish signal. Next support is at $14.23.
$14.96 -- the contract high
$14.61 3/4 -- the 10-day moving average
$14.36 1/4 -- the 20-day moving average
$14.08 3/4 -- the 40-day moving average
$11.29 -- the contract low MAY SOYBEAN MEAL -- combined pit and electronic trading
May CBOT soymeal also pushed to a higher close Tuesday. But, like soybeans, recent activity has been consolidative and range bound. Nearby resistance remains at $486, with nearby support at $471.70. The primary trend remains bullish. But, traders can watch those two key levels for signals to the next directional move. A sustained rally through resistance would suggest the underlying bull trend was resuming its course, while a sell-off under support would be a negative signal. Declines under $471.70 there would be a weak signal and would open the door to a test of support at $465.20, the March 31 low. On the upside, a bullish target from the weekly continuation chart is seen at $496.20 and then $510.
$486.00 -- the contract high
$475.80 -- the 10-day moving average
$464.70 -- the 20-day moving average
$454.50 -- the 40-day moving average
$303.00 -- the contract low
MAY SOYBEAN OIL -- combined pit and electronic trading
May CBOT soybean oil soared to a sharply higher close Tuesday. The action is encouraging for the bulls. For now, a minor low has formed at 39.85 cents, the low hit on March 31. Near term, the outlook is neutral-positive, with resistance lies at 42.35. The bulls would need to scale 42.35 to open the door for a fresh up leg higher.
On the downside, the market's selling pressure into the late March low stalled around a key Fibonacci retracement support. While the selloff on March 31 to 39.85 did pierce a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-March rally, around 40.16, it did not close below it. That area has formed a strong support floor for now.
57.43 -- the contract high
41.11 -- the 10-day moving average
41.50 -- the 20-day moving average
41.58 -- the 40-day moving average
37.14 -- the contract low
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
29800.00 | + 650 | 30000.00 | + 840 |
ПФО |
28940.00 | + 990 | 29000.00 | + 950 |
СКФО |
29450.00 | + 750 | 30000.00 | + 1050 |
ЮФО |
29250.00 | + 1100 | 29700.00 | + 750 |
СФО |
29300.00 | + 900 | 29500.00 | + 1200 |
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
72000.00 | + 1000 | 73300.00 | + 50 |
ЮФО |
69800.00 | + 0 | 74000.00 | + 0 |
ПФО |
71500.00 | + 500 | 73100.00 | + 100 |
СФО |
72500.00 | + 500 | 74900.00 | - 100 |
Обсуждение