17:41, 09.04.2014 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ Soybeans Coil, Watch for Breakout - Technical Analysis


May CBOT soybeans pushed to a moderately firmer close Tuesday, ahead of Wednesday's release of the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Analysts expect the USDA will forecast lower domestic stockpiles in Wednesday's supply-and-demand report. The USDA is expected to lower its outlook for inventories to 139 million bushels, down from 145 million in a March report, according to analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Technically, May soybeans have been "coiling" in a fairly tight range since April 2. The top of that range lies at $14.96 and the bottom lies at $14.56 and those remain the key resistance and support zones to monitor near term.

The primary trend is bullish for May soybeans and the recent "coiling" action could be a type of potential "bull flag" formation. But, a strong and sustained rally and close above $14.96 would be needed to confirm a bullish flag.

Last week, the market did post an upside breakout from a bullish continuation triangle formation on the daily chart, and that remains intact for now. The triangle targets multiday to multiweek gains to the $15.50 area.

On the downside, declines under support at $14.60-14.56 would be a short-term bearish signal. Next support is at $14.23.

$14.96     -- the contract high

$14.61 3/4 -- the 10-day moving average

$14.36 1/4 -- the 20-day moving average

$14.08 3/4 -- the 40-day moving average

$11.29     -- the contract low 
   MAY SOYBEAN MEAL -- combined pit and electronic trading

May CBOT soymeal also pushed to a higher close Tuesday. But, like soybeans, recent activity has been consolidative and range bound. Nearby resistance remains at $486, with nearby support at $471.70. The primary trend remains bullish. But, traders can watch those two key levels for signals to the next directional move. A sustained rally through resistance would suggest the underlying bull trend was resuming its course, while a sell-off under support would be a negative signal. Declines under $471.70 there would be a weak signal and would open the door to a test of support at $465.20, the March 31 low. On the upside, a bullish target from the weekly continuation chart is seen at $496.20 and then $510.

$486.00 -- the contract high

$475.80 -- the 10-day moving average

$464.70 -- the 20-day moving average

$454.50 -- the 40-day moving average

$303.00 -- the contract low

MAY SOYBEAN OIL -- combined pit and electronic trading

May CBOT soybean oil soared to a sharply higher close Tuesday. The action is encouraging for the bulls. For now, a minor low has formed at 39.85 cents, the low hit on March 31. Near term, the outlook is neutral-positive, with resistance lies at 42.35. The bulls would need to scale 42.35 to open the door for a fresh up leg higher.

On the downside, the market's selling pressure into the late March low stalled around a key Fibonacci retracement support. While the selloff on March 31 to 39.85 did pierce a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-March rally, around 40.16, it did not close below it. That area has formed a strong support floor for now.

57.43 -- the contract high

41.11 -- the 10-day moving average

41.50 -- the 20-day moving average

41.58 -- the 40-day moving average

37.14 -- the contract low

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