BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Prospects for Argentina's 2011-12 soybean crop continue to dim due to an earlier drought, with production unlikely to top 44 million metric tons, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said Thursday.

That's down 1 million tons from the exchange's forecast from last week and represents a drop of 10.5% on the year.

A severe drought battered the 2011-12 soy crop in December and January, cutting yields and leading many farmers to put off planting. That means that a much larger share of the crop is late-planted soy, which is still developing and is vulnerable to cold. Farmers are beginning to harvest the early soy, but much will remain in the fields through as late as July.

Argentina leads global soyoil and soymeal exports and ranks third in soybean exports. Global soy prices have been buoyed in recent weeks by signs that the soybean crops in both Argentina and Brazil will come in much lower than initial expectations due to the drought blamed on the La Nina weather phenomenon and an early arrival of cold weather.

Estimates for Argentina's 2011-12 crop production in millions of metric tons 

(MT); one hectare equals 2.47 acres: 
 
 
                     Wheat      Soy         Corn        Sunseed 
 
B.A. Cereals Exch    14MT       44MT        20.8MT       3.6MT 
Ag Ministry          13.4MT     44MT        21.2MT       3.7MT 
USDA                 14.5MT     45MT        21.5MT       3.2MT 
Rosario Grain Exch   13.7MT     43.1MT      19.8MT       -- 
 
Argentina's historical production in millions of metric tons, according to the USDA: 
 
                     Wheat      Soy         Corn        Sunseed 
2010-11              15         49          22.5         3.6 
2009-10              9.6        54.5        22.5         2.3 
2008-09              10.1       32          15           2.9 
2007-08              18.6       46.2        22           4.65 
2006-07              16.3       48.8        22.5         --