14:16, 14.08.2009 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ Asia Grain Outlook:Prices May Ease After Bearish USDA Report (ENG)


SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Grains prices were mostly weaker in thin volume in
Asian trading Friday, with the market continuing to focus on generally bearish
supply fundamentals following this week's U.S. Department of Agriculture August
crop reports, traders said.

  At 0620 GMT, e-CBOT's August soybean contract was trading sharply lower, down
47.25 U.S. cents at $11.40, having fallen by 28.75 cents in the U.S. overnight,
amid a general lack of supportive factors.

  Weather forecasts in the U.S. pointing to benign near-term conditions for
developing crops, coupled with technical pressure, served as warning signs to
bullish traders that the market may be running out of upside steam, traders
said.

  Wednesday's USDA crop report pegged U.S. soybean production at record levels,
though estimations that U.S. output in 2009 may reach 3.199 billion bushels
with a yield of 41.7 bushels per acre was below the average Dow Jones survey
estimate of 3.213 billion, on an average yield estimate of 42.1 bushels/acre.

  August is when soybeans enter their pollination stage, and that is when U.S.
crop yields are set.

  However, weather will play a significant part in determining final yield and
production. Soybeans in the eastern Midwest in particular are vulnerable to
crop losses from normal fall frosts due to lagging maturity brought about by
late planting.

  In China, the outlook for soybeans has also turned weaker following a slight
decline Thursday that was triggered by funds selling soybean contracts to
switch to corn, amid expectations that corn production will be hit by drought
in key growing areas in the northeast of the country.

  Analysts said soybean futures will also suffer from selling pressure if
prices rise above CNY3,850/ton, as that would give the government an
opportunity to sell soybeans from its reserves at prices above the base auction
price of CNY3,750/ton.

  CBOT corn futures also declined slightly Friday - at 0605 GMT on the e-CBOT,
the September corn contract was down 0.50 U.S. cent at $3.24/bushel - having
fallen 6.25 cents during U.S. trading hours Thursday.

  Traders attributed corn's fall to bearish crop fundamentals, with Wednesday's
USDA report estimating the U.S. 2009 corn yield at a near record 159.5 bushels
per acre.

  Weather in key U.S. growing areas remains benign and is mostly seen as
bearish, traders said.

  Recent hot weather is dissipating, and the crop is getting enough rainfall in
most areas. Some traders say that if the weather remains favorable, corn will
ultimately break below the psychologically-important $3.00/bushel support
level.

  In other news, the world's largest rice exporter, Thailand, will hold talks
with Cambodia about forming a rice council, as part of an initiative to
establish a single market for members of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, Thai Commerce Minister Pornthiva Nakasai said Friday.

  "It's a good opportunity for Asean members to jointly collaborate on (rice)
production. This will benefit us on pricing and bargaining power," Pornthiva
told reporters on the sideline of the 41st Asean Economic Ministers meeting in
Bangkok.


  

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