01:05, 11.08.2009 — Новости
автор: webagro.net

DJ CBOT Soy Review: Retreats On Less Threatening Weather (ENG)


By Andrew Johnson Jr
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade
backpedaled Monday, retreating amid less threatening weather for Midwest crops
and positioning ahead of Wednesday's crop reports.

CBOT August soybeans ended 14 cents lower at $11.70 1/2, and November
soybeans finished 28 1/2 cents lower at $10.10. In pit trades, speculative fund
selling was estimated at 4,000 lots in soybeans and 1,000 lots in soymeal.

December soymeal ended $13.30 lower at $305.70. December soyoil finished 29
points lower at 37.20 cents a pound.

Last week, the market rallied sharply on threatening weather forecasts for
central U.S. crops, but forecasts now call for more normal August weather
conditions moving forward, said Brian Hoops, president Midwest Market
Solutions.

The change in weather opened the door for traders to trim some risk premium
from prices in conjunction with profit-taking ahead of Wednesday's crop
reports, Hoops said.

The unwinding of soybeans versus corn and wheat spreads was featured as well,
with traders reducing risk exposure in the event of a surprise in the U.S.
Department of Agriculture's production and supply-and-demand forecasts.

The absence of outside market leadership kept attention on weather, but
strength in the U.S. dollar and lower-than-expected export inspections added to
the defensive theme, said Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics &
Consulting LLC.

Cropcast Weather Services said notable rainfall returned to northern crop
areas of the Midwest in the past weekend, helping to significantly ease
lingering dryness. Rainfall is expected to cross central and southern portions
of the region over the next two days, helping to maintain favorable moisture in
those areas for late soybean growth, Cropcast forecasts.

Temperatures should warm again during the six-to-10-day period, further
accelerating crop growth, with no major heat foreseen at this time, Cropcast
reports.

The USDA will release its weekly crop-progress report at 4 p.m. EDT (2000
GMT) Monday. Analysts anticipate the percentage of soybean crops rated good to
excellent to decline by 1 to 2 percentage points from the previous week.

The USDA is scheduled to release its first 2009 crop-production estimates
based on field surveys and its monthly supply-and-demand estimates Wednesday at
8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).

The average of analysts' estimates projects a crop size of 3.213 billion
bushels with a yield of 42.1 bushels per acre. The averages ranged from 3
billion to 3.275 billion bushels for production and 40.9 to 43.5 for yield.

SOY PRODUCTS


Soy product futures prices fell in unison with soybeans. Soymeal futures
dropped more than 4% of their value Monday while losing product share to soyoil
on adjustments in meal/oil spread relationships, analysts said. Less
threatening weather for U.S. soybeans and a firmer U.S. dollar served as
catalysts to firmly plant futures in negative territory.

Soyoil futures ended lower, but gained versus meal on spreads. Weakness in
crude oil futures, a firmer U.S. dollar and ample supplies kept pressure on
prices, traders said.

December oil share was 37.81%, while the November/December soybean crush
ended at 71 3/4 cents.


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