By Curt Thacker
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


  KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)--Some analysts and traders are lowering their earlier
forecasts for cash hog prices from September through the end of the year in
reaction to recent market developments.

  Cash and futures prices for hogs have tumbled the latest two weeks with
multiple new lows hit in most Chicago Mercantile Exchange lean hog contracts
this week.

  Cash prices have dropped about $10 per hundredweight, or 17.5%, since July 24
and are now at a 21-month low. From a cycle high hit July 16, front-month
August hog futures have declined 1,675 points, or nearly 26%.

  Neil Dierks, chief executive of the National Pork Producers Council, on
Friday called the current situation for producers "very bleak." Producers have
lost an average of $21 per head since September 2007, he said.

  The outlook for prices the remainder of the year indicates even deeper losses
for producers.

  Glenn Grimes, agricultural economist with the University of Missouri, has
lowered his forecast for fourth-quarter prices to the mid $30s on a live weight
basis from around $40 previously. He said prices for a one-month period during
the quarter could slide to the low $30s.

  With break-even costs projected to be around $50 to $52 live for the final
quarter, producer losses could widen to $40 to $45 per head for the quarter and
perhaps be as much as $50 at times, according to the forecasts.

  Speculation of possible foreclosures by agricultural lenders or bankruptcy
filings soon has increased this week after the steep declines in cash hog and
futures prices.

  A veteran livestock dealer in the western corn belt predicted Friday that hog
prices "may slide into the mid $20s [per hundredweight on a live weight basis]"
in the current cycle based on the large hog supplies and lower prices required
for packers to sell the pork.

  The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday's early-day national
weighted average carcass price at $46.96, which converts to a live-weight price
of about $35.25.