By Andrew Johnson Jr.
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


  CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Late developing soybean crops across portions of the
central U.S. are raising concerns about reduced yield potential and the threat
of crop losses if the growing season is cut short by an early frost.

  The lagging development pace of soybeans in key growing states of Illinois,
Indiana, Minnesota and Ohio provides for a lot of elasticity in soybean yield
potential, making August weather conditions even more critical for final
output.

  "Slow soybean growth is attributed to late-planted crops and could lead to
reduced yields, but if weather patterns hold true through August with ample
moisture, yield reductions may not be as bad," said Charles Mansfield,
extension agronomist with Purdue University.

  The late plantings and cooler-than-normal summer weather resulted in smaller
soybeans plants at this point in the season compared with previous years.

  "Small soybeans or late-planted soybeans that do not reach full canopy by
flowering probably have lost some yield potential," said Chad Lee, University
of Kentucky agronomist, in a crop update. "Cooler temperatures also reduce the
chances of soybeans reaching full canopy by flowering."

  Lee points to various scenarios that could lead to yield reductions.

  As of July 26, U.S. Department of Agriculture reported the percentage of
soybean crops in the blooming of stage of development at 63%, compared with the
five-year average of 76%.

  "In 2008, when 60% of the crop was blooming and lagging in maturity similar
to 2009, a month-by-month yield decline from July's 41.6 bushels per acre
carried into the month of November with 39.3 bushels per acre and a January
annual estimate of 39.6 for a total decline of 4.8%," according to a research
note from Allendale Inc.

  "By using the resulting decline in 2008, final yield could result in 2009
yield per acre of 40.55 and end stocks of 118 million bushels versus
Allendale's present outlook of 275 million bushels and USDA's 250 million
bushels," Allendale said in the note.

  USDA used a trend line yield of 42.6 bushels an acre in its July 10 supply
and demand report.

  However, weather in August will ultimately be the key determinant of 2009
soybean yield potential.

  Delayed seedings had set soybeans on an extended maturity cycle and cool
Midwest summer temperatures further delayed and elongated the time the crop
will take to mature, analysts said.

  "An extended growing season would be in the crop's favor as well," Mansfield
said.

  "A much larger percentage of planted soybeans in 2009 will be in harm's way
of a damaging frost this coming September than normal, and if the current cold
temperature pattern remains in place through September, the possibility
certainly exists for a frost to create devastating consequences for overall
production," said Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Advisors, in a market
note.

  "In a year where old crop U.S. supplies are near record tight, the world has
no buffer stock to absorb such a shortfall in U.S. production as it might have
had in years past," Hackett said.