01:16, 20.06.2009 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ Paraguay GDP To Contract 4% In 2009 - PricewaterhouseCoopers (ENG)


DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


  Paraguay's economy is expected to contract sharply this year due to a sharp
decline in farm trade, the local unit of PricewaterhouseCoopers said in an
email to Dow Jones Newswires Friday.

  Gross domestic product is expected to fall by 4% in 2009 compared to a year
earlier. If the situation continues to deteriorate, GDP could fall by as much
as 5.4%, while an optimistic scenario could see GDP slip by just 2.4%,
according to PWC.

  The decline stands in sharp contrast to the 5.8% growth seen in 2008 and 6.8%
growth in 2007.

  The main reason for the decline is the sharp drop-off in farm sales, which
are expected to be down 21% on the year in 2009. A brutal drought this season
saw a large share of Paraguay's crops wilt.

  Production of soybeans, Paraguay's top crop, likely fell to 4 million metric
tons, down 41% from last season, Luis Cubilla, lead analyst at Paraguay's grain
export chamber, or Capeco, told Dow Jones recently.

  Paraguay, the world's fourth-largest soybean exporter, was hit by two periods
of extended drought this season. The crops suffered from a severe lack of
rainfall in November and December and a drought that started in February
through April.

  Despite the dismal prospects for 2009, GDP growth is expected to rebound to a
4.2% year-on-year gain in 2010, with 3% growth seen in 2011 and 2012, according
to PWC.

  Inflation is also seen slowing sharply this year, ending 2009 at 2% compared
with the 7.5% inflation seen in 2008.  However, prices are likely to start
rising again when the economy recovers in 2010.  Inflation next year is
forecast at 7%, PWC said.


  

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