DOW JONES NEWSWIRES Paraguay's economy is expected to contract sharply this year due to a sharp decline in farm trade, the local unit of PricewaterhouseCoopers said in an email to Dow Jones Newswires Friday. Gross domestic product is expected to fall by 4% in 2009 compared to a year earlier. If the situation continues to deteriorate, GDP could fall by as much as 5.4%, while an optimistic scenario could see GDP slip by just 2.4%, according to PWC. The decline stands in sharp contrast to the 5.8% growth seen in 2008 and 6.8% growth in 2007. The main reason for the decline is the sharp drop-off in farm sales, which are expected to be down 21% on the year in 2009. A brutal drought this season saw a large share of Paraguay's crops wilt. Production of soybeans, Paraguay's top crop, likely fell to 4 million metric tons, down 41% from last season, Luis Cubilla, lead analyst at Paraguay's grain export chamber, or Capeco, told Dow Jones recently. Paraguay, the world's fourth-largest soybean exporter, was hit by two periods of extended drought this season. The crops suffered from a severe lack of rainfall in November and December and a drought that started in February through April. Despite the dismal prospects for 2009, GDP growth is expected to rebound to a 4.2% year-on-year gain in 2010, with 3% growth seen in 2011 and 2012, according to PWC. Inflation is also seen slowing sharply this year, ending 2009 at 2% compared with the 7.5% inflation seen in 2008. However, prices are likely to start rising again when the economy recovers in 2010. Inflation next year is forecast at 7%, PWC said.
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
29800.00 | + 650 | 30000.00 | + 840 |
ПФО |
28940.00 | + 990 | 29000.00 | + 950 |
СКФО |
29450.00 | + 750 | 30000.00 | + 1050 |
ЮФО |
29250.00 | + 1100 | 29700.00 | + 750 |
СФО |
29300.00 | + 900 | 29500.00 | + 1200 |
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
72000.00 | + 1000 | 73300.00 | + 50 |
ЮФО |
69800.00 | + 0 | 74000.00 | + 0 |
ПФО |
71500.00 | + 500 | 73100.00 | + 100 |
СФО |
72500.00 | + 500 | 74900.00 | - 100 |
Обсуждение