By Curt Thacker
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


  KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)--Economic uncertainty and continuing concern over
consumer demand are generating cautious views within the pork industry for
summer hog prices.

  Despite a 4.4% reduction in pork production for the year through mid-May, hog
and pork prices continue to lag well behind a year ago. The discount to
year-ago prices widened further since late April after outbreaks of a new form
of influenza with some deaths caused by a virus now known as H1N1.

  The effect on the pork industry is a result of the virus being initially
called swine flu by health organizations because the virus contains genetic
material from influenzas of swine, humans and birds.

  Although pork handled and cooked properly is safe to eat, according to
authoritative health organizations, many domestic and global consumers were
spooked by the term and boycotted the meat.

  Ron Plain, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, said the
recent influenza scare and expectations of additional cases and further
coverage in the months ahead could continue to pressure the pork complex.

  "The impact of H1N1 is not as bad as it was early on, but it is still
affecting the market," Plain said.

  A critical problem is weak demand for pork, said Don Roose, analyst with U.S.
Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa. To offset the drop in demand, the
breeding herd would need to be reduced by an additional 2% to 3%, he said.

  Russia and China were among the several countries that imposed temporary bans
on imports of pork from many U.S. states. Pork sales to Mexico are reported to
have ground to a halt due to drastically reduced consumer demand there, where
several people died from H1N1.

  Greg Wagner, senior commodity analyst for AgResource Company, said the pork
industry is still rebuilding export demand slowed by the H1N1 influenza. Last
year at this time, pork exports were extraordinary, he said. But he said both
Russia and China, which were large importers at that time, have been focusing
on their domestic production and are importing less U.S. pork.

  U.S. pork exports in the first quarter held up remarkably well, the analysts
said. Pork muscle meat exports were off just 3% in volume but up 4% in value
from a year ago. Total pork exports, including variety meats, were up 8% by
volume and 10% in value for the quarter. Exports in April and particularly May,
however, appear to be off the earlier pace, based on anecdotal reports by meat
brokers and industry insiders.

  Bob Brown, private analyst in Edmond, Okla., said his cash hog market data
show prices the week after the Memorial Day holiday declined from the previous
week in each of the last 10 years. He said prices generally turn higher again
around the second week of June.

  USDA's latest national average cash hog price was $57.71 per hundredweight,
down 26% from a year ago.

  The analysts predict hog prices in June to average from $60 to $63 on a
dressed 51%-52% lean basis. For the third quarter average, price estimates
range from $62 to $72, with Plain's projections at the low end of the range and
Brown's on the upper end.

  Producers have been losing money over the past 20 months. The next four
months could be a make-or-break period for some operations because if they do
not turn a profit, the producers may exit the business on their own or be
forced out by lenders, analysts said.