01:15, 05.05.2009 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ US Cash Grain Outlook:4-7 Month Price Peak, More Rain Ahead (ENG)


By Gary Wulf

  of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


  CENTRAL CITY, Neb. (Dow Jones)--US cash grain prices stood at 4-7 month highs
Monday, despite a softer undertone in most domestic basis markets.

  Cash premiums were lower for all classes of grain - save for soft red winter
wheat - led by daily-average declines of 2 1/2 cents per bushel in interior
spring wheat basis.

  "There was significant action from the country, as it appears that the
[futures] rally has pushed flat prices high enough to trigger wheat from the
farmer bins, onto the market," said Country Hedging Friday.

  Averaging $7.01 per bushel, US HRS wheat prices are now higher than they have
been at any point since September 26, which coincidentally, is also the last
time elevator bids for spot soybeans have been as high as they were at last
week's close of $10.55.

  Interior corn and grain sorghum basis also averaged as much as 1 cent lower.

  "We saw a very large amount of farmer selling [of cash corn] take place,"
Friday, said eHedger analyst Justin Kelly.

  Already-elevated soybean futures gained additional altitude overnight,
leaving July CBOT contracts more than 22 cents higher by the close of the
Globex trading session.

  "The [US soybean] trade is worried about 'pipeline-level' ending stocks,
diminishing South American production figures, and dwindling world ending
stocks," said analyst Mark Gold.

  Cash-contracts in all other grain futures were lower overnight - by about 2
cents for oats/HRW wheat, and 4-5 cents for corn/SRW wheat/HRS wheat.

  "[Wheat] supplies likely aren't getting much bigger, but there are no
indications they're getting any smaller," said Farm Progress market analyst
Bryce Knorr. "Spring wheat flooding and lower production around the world could
eventually produce good post-harvest rallies. But rally potential is limited
into harvest, without help from other markets, unless crop conditions take a
dramatic turn for the worse."

  National cash price indices maintained by the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
stand at $10.55 1/2 for soybeans, representing an average basis of -35 1/2
cents relative to Friday's settlement of July CBOT futures. Domestic cash
prices also average $3.84 1/2 for corn (-29 1/2 cents basis July CBOT corn),
$5.56 1/4 for hard red winter wheat (-58 1/2 cents basis KCBT July wheat),
$4.46 for soft red winter wheat (-$1.24 basis CBOT July wheat) and $7.01 for
hard red spring wheat (+16 1/4 cents basis MGEX July wheat).


  Crop Weather


  Rain was scattered across much of the US grain belt Monday, with the heaviest
downpours centered on the Southeast.

  "While particularly heavy rainfall is not in the forecast for the Corn Belt
over the next week to ten days, enough rain will fall in the wettest parts of
the Corn Belt to keep alive worries about how slow corn planting will be," said
Freese-Notis Weather. "By all accounts, it is southeastern parts of the Corn
Belt that area the wettest right now."

  Three storm systems are expected to cross through various portions of the
Midwest during the next week, with the first wave of showers and thunderstorms
returning to Iowa as early as Tuesday.


    

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