MUMBAI (Dow Jones)--Cultivated areas of summer-sown crops in India such as
oilseeds, rice, and cotton are likely to rise this year due to near-normal
monsoon projections and better prices, but distribution of rainfall will be
critical to final output, industry officials said Thursday.

  Last year, irregular and uneven distribution of rain hit most summer-sown
crops.

  "The government's projection of 96% (of normal seasonal rainfall) is good for
the (oilseed) crop, provided we have equal distribution of rains at regular
intervals," said B.V. Mehta, executive director of India's Solvent Extractors'
Association.

  Oilseed production declined last year due to a dry spell in July and
irregular rains during the year, despite near-normal monsoon conditions, he
said.

  Mehta said that good prices for soybeans, the main oilseed sown during the
summer season, has boosted sentiment so farmers are likely to plant more of the
crop.

  Currently, soybeans are being quoted at INR26,500 per 100 kg in the spot
market, up from INR19,250/100 kg in October during the harvesting of the crop.

  India's annual monsoon rains are likely to provide around 96% of the
long-term seasonal average, the India Meteorological Department said recently.
Last year, the country received about 98% of the long-term seasonal average.

  "The only comfort factor we have is that there is no extraneous force that is
going to affect the monsoon this year like the El Nino," said Madan Sabnavis,
chief economist with the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange.

  EL Nino is a phenomenon usually associated with below-average rainfall in
India's agricultural areas.

  Cotton cultivation is likely to rise, said Shirish Shah, a director with the
Cotton Association of India.

  "Farmers are likely to go for more cultivation of cotton this year because of
a higher minimum support price," said Shah. "If rainfall is good the crop will
be reasonably good. It should be at least the current year's level."

  India's cotton production in the marketing year that started with the harvest
in October 2008 was around 29 million bales of 170 kilograms each, according to
the latest estimates of the Cotton Advisory Board.

  Late last year, the federal government raised the minimum support price for
cotton for the marketing year to September 2009 to INR2,500-INR3,000 per 100
kilograms, depending on the grade, from INR1,800-INR2,030/100 kg the previous
year.

  Vijay Setia, president of the All India Rice Exporters Association, said that
if rains are evenly distributed, then 2009 rice output is likely to be around
the same as last year's 98.9 million tons.

  Summer crops such as soybean, rice, cotton, and corn are sown in June and
harvested in October, and are heavily dependent on the June-September monsoon
rains.