ЕС. Обзор рынка зерновых на 07.05.24 г.
17:30 — Обзоры по экспорту и импорту
01:17, 27.03.2009 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ CWB Price Outlooks For ''09-''10 Wheat Up; Durum, Malt Barley Dn (ENG)


WINNIPEG (Dow Jones)--The Canadian Wheat Board has raised its price
projections for wheat that will be delivered by producers during the 2009-10
crop year, which begins Aug. 1, 2009, and ends July 31, 2010.

  The pool return outlooks, or PROs, for durum and malting barley were lowered,
while feed wheat and feed barley price outlooks were left unchanged.

  The CWB said the PROs for most grades of wheat were raised C$8 per metric ton
from its February outlook.

  World wheat production is expected to shrink in the new crop year by 30
million to 50 million metric tons, but is still projected to be the
second-largest crop on record. The International Grains Council released its
initial forecast for a 2009 world wheat crop of 651 million tons, down 36.5
million from last year.

  The large oversupply of wheat in 2008-09 allowed major exporting countries to
build wheat stocks, pressuring prices throughout the crop year.

  Concerns about the hard red winter and hard red spring wheat crops in the
U.S. should provide some support as the market focus shifts to new-crop
conditions, the CWB said. Parts of the HRW growing region, including western
Texas, Oklahoma and western Kansas, continue to be under moderate to severe
stress due to lack of soil moisture.

  Flooding in the Red River Valley has increased planting concerns for southern
Manitoba, North and South Dakota and Minnesota. The flooding is expected to
delay spring wheat planting and may result in increased area planted to
soybeans instead of spring wheat.

  Crop conditions in Eastern Europe were favorable this past month. However,
dryness in China, western Iran and Argentina should be supportive to prices.

  Weather, the economy and the Canadian dollar will play significant roles in
the evolution of prices in the new crop year, the CWB said. There has been a
slight strengthening in the Canadian dollar this past month, which has not been
supportive for PRO values. Ocean freight rates also increased this past month
on stronger demand; however, freight rates are still at very low levels
historically.

  The PROs for durum were reduced C$3 per ton from the CWB's February
projection as the North African durum crops are looking exceptionally good as
they enter the critical reproductive growth stage.

  Durum production is expected to decrease in Europe, the U.S. and Canada, the
CWB said. However, increased area and good growing conditions in North Africa
should limit any significant decrease in total production.

  The smaller European Union crop should increase European demand for durum in
the next crop year, but increased production in North Africa will reduce import
demand in that region. The 2009-10 durum crop in the U.S. is expected to be in
line with the 2008-09 crop, but, with larger carry-in stocks, total supply is
projected to be higher, which will add pressure to prices in early summer.

  The PROs for designated barley were also lowered C$8 per ton from the
February projection. The CWB said the European winter barley crop has developed
under mostly normal conditions. Above-average temperatures and light to
moderate rainfall in Germany, France and the U.K. were seen as beneficial for
spring barley prospects. Demand from importing countries is expected to remain
strong in the upcoming crop year, helping to support prices. Adequate barley
supplies in the coming year are expected to narrow the spread between feed and
malt quality barley to more traditional levels, the CWB said.

  Feed barley PRO prices were left unchanged. The CWB said global barley
production is expected to decrease in 2009-10, but will still be larger than
average. Canadian production is expected to decline significantly, while the
U.S., Australia and Ukraine are projected to have large supplies of barley.

  Large supplies and a struggling livestock sector will pressure feed barley
prices. Tightening U.S. corn supplies and less feed wheat should offset the
weakened demand and provide some support to feed barley prices in 2009-10, the
CWB said.


  The following are the Canadian Wheat Board's pool return outlooks detailing
estimated payments to farmers for grain delivered during the 2009-10
(August-July) crop year, in Canadian dollars per metric ton, basis in store St.
Lawrence/Vancouver.

  Source: Canadian Wheat Board.

                                       2009/10    2009/10
                                        PRO        PRO
                                       March     February
Wheat--
  1 Canada western red spring 14.5%   310.00     302.00
  1 Canada western red spring 13.5%   297.00     289.00
  1 Canada western red spring 12.5%   290.00     282.00
  1 Canada western red spring 11.5%   282.00     274.00
  2 Canada western red spring 13.5%   291.00     283.00
  2 Canada western red spring 11.5%   276.00     268.00
  3 Canada western red spring 13.0%   274.00     266.00
  3 Canada western red spring         263.00     255.00
  4 Canada western red spring         240.00     232.00
  1 Canada western HS spring 13.5%    297.00     289.00
  1 Canada prairie spring red         258.00     250.00
  1 Canada prairie spring white       258.00     250.00
  1 Canada western red winter 11.5%   272.00     264.00
  1 Canada western red winter         251.00     243.00
  1 Canada western extra strong       267.00     259.00
  1 CW soft white spring <9.9%        261.00     253.00
  1 CW soft white spring >10.8%       241.00     233.00
  CW Feed                             198.00     198.00
Durum--
  1 CW amber durum 14.5%              311.00     314.00
  1 CW amber durum 13.0%              300.00     303.00
  1 CW amber durum 12.5%              297.00     300.00
  1 CW amber durum 11.5%              290.00     293.00
  2 CW amber durum 13.0%              291.00     294.00
  2 CW amber durum 11.5%              284.00     287.00
  3 CW amber durum 13.0%              273.00     276.00
  3 CW amber durum                    267.00     270.00
  4 CW amber durum                    250.00     253.00
  5 CW amber durum                    198.00     198.00
Barley--
  1 CW barley Pool A                  161.00     161.00
  Select 2-Row CW                     255.00     263.00
  Select 6-Row CW                     235.00     243.00


  

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17:30 — Обзоры по экспорту и импорту
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