ЕС. Обзор рынка зерновых на 07.05.24 г.
17:30 — Обзоры по экспорту и импорту
01:08, 17.03.2009 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ CBOT Soy Review: Gains Sustained As Crude Oil Turns Positive


By Rebecca Townsend
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures posted strong
gains Monday, bolstered by gains in crude oil and equities and weakness in
value of the U.S. dollar index.

May soybean contracts finished up 34 1/2 cents a bushel to close at $9.11.
The contract traded in a 36-cent range, topping at $9.18. July soybeans added
32 1/4 cents to close at $9.07 1/2. It spread a 33-cent range, topping at
$9.14. November soybeans gained 26 3/4 cents to $8.50 1/2.

Midday estimates pegged speculative fund buying at 5,000CBOT soybean
contracts.

"Funds were short and they're working quickly to cover most of those," said
Dan Cekander, director research at Newedge.

Soybeans led the agricultural complex higher Monday, finding additional
support in later gains by crude oil as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
more than 100 points and the value of the U.S. dollar index weakened, CBOT
floor traders said.

There is some soybean movement in the U.S. and South America and month-end
seasonalities and stabilizing outside markets are supportive of the soybean
markets, a CBOT broker said.

Last week, the trade encountered significant resistance at the 20-day moving
average of $8.80, but now the bulls are working to press the $9.25 100-day
moving average, he added.

"If we've overshot on the downside and the rest of the world becomes more
stable in terms of demand, we'll work higher from here," he said.

U.S. soybeans inspected for export in the week ended March 12 totaled 22.416
million bushels, down 27.4% from the previous week's 30.855 million, according
to data released Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Analysts expected weekly inspections to range from 22 million to 29 million
bushels.

The primary destination for the soybeans was China, which accounted for
11.238 million bushels. Accumulated soybean export inspections for the 2008-09
marketing year total 876.4 million bushels, up 11.44% from the 786.446 million
reported at the same time last year.

Regarding global trade issues, CBOT floor traders said they expect more
clarity on Argentine export potential following a Tuesday meeting scheduled
between Argentina's government and farmers.

Farmers will meet with government officials again on Tuesday for the fourth
round of weekly talks, which have produced a partial agreement to avoid new
strikes. However, the situation remains tense over an export-tax issue.

A return of drier weather during the past week or two has drawn soil moisture
down again in much of western and far northern Argentina, according to Cropcast
Agricultural Weather.

Dryness is drawing down yield potential for double-crop soybeans in at least
a quarter of the soybean belt, but the Cropcast forecast supports ideas of rain
around next Tuesday and this "could help to curb some additional losses for
double-crop areas and prevent an expansion of late-season dryness concerns,"
the private weather firm said.

"As of last week, double-crop soybeans were still rated average to good,
based on official reports," Cropcast said. "However, first-crop soybean
conditions were downgraded since the end of February to average to poor
condition."

SOY PRODUCTS


The CBOT soy complex finished higher Monday, mirroring gains in soybeans,
crude oil and equities. U.S. dollar weakness was also supportive as was a
better-than-expected monthly crush estimate, traders said.

May soymeal gained $11.70 to $288.40 per short ton and May soyoil added 69
points to 30.86 cents per pound. Speculative funds bought an estimated 1,000
soymeal and soyoil lots, respectively, according to mid-day estimates.

May soyoil share ended at 34.85% and the March crush ended at 63 cents.

The National Oilseed Processors Association estimated February soybean crush
at 128.668 million bushels, down 10.432 million from last month. Analysts,
however, expected a deeper cut in the crush, to 126.2 million bushels, given
sluggish domestic meal demand.

"NOPA crush was above expectations and so it probably further reduces most
analysts' estimates of March 1 Stocks in All Positions," said Anne Frick,
oilseeds analyst at Prudential Bache.

"[Soymeal] prices held above March 2 lows last week, indicating that we
probably saw the 'February break' low and may have begun a seasonal rally into
the spring which is probably generating some short-covering as a result," Frick
said.

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ЕС. Обзор рынка зерновых на 07.05.24 г.
17:30 — Обзоры по экспорту и импорту
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