Winnipeg, MB, Oct. 3, 2014

ICE Futures Canada canola contracts settled higher on Friday, as weakness in the Canadian dollar, a supportive Statistics Canada production report, and bullish technical signals all contributed to the gains.

The Canadian dollar was down by roughly three-quarters of a cent relative to its US counterpart, which underpins crush margins and also makes canola more attractively priced to international customers. The CBOT soy complex was down on the day. However, when accounting for the exchange rate, canola held relatively steady with its US counterparts, according to a broker.

Chart-based buying did provide some support for canola as well, with the November contract moving back above the psychological C$400 per tonne level.

Statistics Canada released updated production estimates Friday morning, pegging the canola crop at 14.1 million tonnes. The number was up slightly from the 13.9 million tonnes forecast in August, but came in at the low end of trade estimates.

Given the timing of the survey in early September, when little harvest activity had occurred, market participants generally remain of the opinion that actual production will still end up closer to 14.5 million tonnes.

About 18,032 canola contracts were traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 23,293 contracts changed hands. Spreading was a feature, accounting for 15,890 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

                          Price      Change
Canola            Nov     403.80    up 5.60
                  Jan     409.90    up 5.60
                  Mar     416.60    up 5.40
Milling Wheat     Dec     203.00    unch
                  Mar     212.00    unch
Durum             Dec     326.50    unch
                  Mar     327.50    unch
Barley            Dec     116.50    unch
                  Mar     119.50    unch
     Spread trade prices are in Canadian dollars and the volume
represents the number of spreads:
Months        Prices                      Volume
Canola
Nov/Jan       6.50 under to 6.00 under     3,522
Nov/Mar       13.50 under to 12.50 under     785
Nov/May       19.90 under to 19.30 under     105
Nov/Jul       24.40 under to 24.30 under       9
Nov/Nov       30.40 under to 30.10 under      15
Jan/Mar       7.00 under to 6.50 under     1,717
Jan/Jul       18.90 under to 18.50 under      41
Mar/May       6.70 under to 6.10 under       788
Mar/Jul       12.30 under to 11.40 under      42
May/Jul       5.90 under to 4.90 under       490
Jul/Nov       6.50 under to 5.20 under       431

Commodity News Service