17:32, 21.04.2014 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ Soybeans Reverse From New Contract High - Technical Analysis


July CBOT soybeans closed lower Thursday amid signs of weakening demand for U.S. oilseeds supplies. The market closed higher on the weekly chart.

Thursday's action saw the market punch to a new contract high at $15.21 intraday, before reversing to a lower close. The intraday rally hit a technical target at $15.20 1/4, the July 26, 2013, weekly continuation chart high. The trend pattern is bullish, but the reversal to a weaker close on Thursday is a red-flag warning signal. Also, daily momentum studies, including slow stochastics and the relative strength index are both at overbought levels. The momentum readings are a warning the market is vulnerable to correction at any time.

Nonetheless, the trend outlook remains positive. On the downside, old resistance at the April 9 high at $14.90 has become support. It would take declines under that zone to open the door to downside correction.

$15.21     -- the contract high 
   $14.71 3/4 -- the 10-day moving average 
   $14.45 1/4 -- the 20-day moving average 
   $14.15     -- the 40-day moving average 
   $10.54     -- the contract low 
 
JULY SOYBEAN MEAL -- combined pit and electronic trading

July CBOT soymeal also rallied to a new contract high but then retraced to a lower close at the final bell Thursday. The overall trend pattern remains bullish, but Thursday's lower close is a weak signal. Nonetheless, the new contract high offers resistance at $485, and gains through there would target additional strength to $490.00 and then $496.20, seen on the weekly continuation chart. The market closed just under minor support from the April 9 high at $478.70. Sustained declines under that area early in the week would suggest the market is vulnerable to some downside testing with major support at $461.80, the April 14 low. From a trend perspective, as long as $461.80 holds firm, the rising trend pattern is intact.

$485.00 -- the contract high 
   $470.40 -- the 10-day moving average 
   $463.40 -- the 20-day moving average 
   $450.50 -- the 40-day moving average 
   $293.30 -- the contract low 
 
July SOYBEAN OIL -- combined pit and electronic trading

July CBOT soybean oil closed slightly lower Thursday, but the contract posted a narrow "inside day" session. Strong gains were seen on the weekly chart. On the daily chart, the near-term trend pattern is positive. Gains through initial resistance at 43.95 cents would open the door for a bullish run back toward major resistance at 45.10 cents, the March 7 swing high. On the downside, the important levels to watch remain the same. Recent swing-low support is seen at 42.01 cents, the April 11 low. As long as that holds, the near-term focus will remain to the upside.

57.43 -- the contract high 
   42.69 -- the 10-day moving average 
   41.88 -- the 20-day moving average 
   42.25 -- the 40-day moving average 
   37.14 -- the contract low

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