16:37, 14.10.2013 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ Asian Grain Prices to Get Support From Weather Concerns, Chinese Demand

SINGAPORE--Asian grain prices are likely to get support this week from strong Chinese demand and weather concerns that have delayed winter plantings and slowed harvesting in major exporting countries of the Americas and the Black Sea region, said trade participants.

Rains have hit winter wheat plantings in Russia, one of the world's largest exporters. Unfavorable weather conditions have also damaged the wheat crop in Argentina, where prices are quoted at double international levels.

"Less-than-expected exports from Argentina and Russia may translate into more demand for U.S. wheat," said Vanessa Tan, a Singapore-based investment analyst with Phillip Futures.

Around 1025 GMT, the wheat futures contract for December delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade was at US$6.92 a bushel. Most analysts put immediate technical resistance at $7/bushel and then $7.35/bushel.

Recent purchases of U.S. corn and soybeans by China are also supporting prices.

"The medium-term price outlook for grains is bearish, but there is some support from Chinese buying, particularly in corn," said a Singapore-based executive at a global commodity trading company.

CBOT December corn futures are currently around US$4.33/bushel, and analysts peg resistance at US$4.50/bushel.

CBOT November soybeans are trading around US$12.85/bushel, with analysts putting resistance at US$13/bushel.

In the absence of fresh leads from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly demand and supply report, traders are tracking buying and selling in the cash markets.

The monthly report, scheduled for last week, wasn't released due to the U.S. government's partial shutdown. Recent aggressive buying activity, including Chinese soybean purchases for next year and South Korea's corn purchases for shipments in March, has provided some support to prices, traders and analysts said.

However, they said the support will be limited due to pressure from upcoming harvests in the U.S. and Australia.

"We have probably already seen the lowest yield estimates on balance sheets for this marketing year, and it is also possible that we have seen the highest demand outlook," said Karl Setzer, an analyst with Iowa-based MaxYield Cooperative. The combination of these two factors points to an increase in inventories.

In other news, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has in an initial draft proposed a cut in the mandate on use of corn-based ethanol from 13.8 billion gallons to 13 billion gallons.

The potential changes to the mandate only add to the bearish tone in the corn sector as harvesting progresses and yield reports remain better than expected, Tim Legoe, an analyst with Victoria-based Lachstock Consulting, said in a report.

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