02:15, 10.09.2009 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ CBOT Soy Review: Crop Outlooks, Weather Weigh On Prices (ENG)


By Andrew Johnson Jr.
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


  CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures stumbled
Wednesday, backpedaling on large crop outlooks and bearish weather in the
absence of a strong outside market influence.

  CBOT September settled 7 1/2 cents lower at $9.61 1/2 per bushel, and
November soybeans finished 8 cents lower at $9.28 1/2 per bushel. In pit
trades, speculative fund selling was estimated at 4,000 lots in soybeans, and
1,000 lots in soyoil.

  September soymeal settled $5.30 higher at $348.80 per short ton, and December
soymeal ended $0.80 higher at $285.30. December soyoil finished 52 points lower
at 34.28 cents per pound.

  Favorable near-term weather and the potential for record 2009 production
loomed large over the market heading toward Friday's crop production report,
analysts said.

  In the absence of a bullish spark from outside markets, futures had little
fundamental support to mount another upward push. A lack of a crop threat took
the fear of tight supplies out of the equation, with the availability of new
harvest soybeans and trade ideas that production will increase if crops avoid a
September frost keeping prices on the defensive.

  Technical selling was featured in the declines as well, with overhead chart
resistance near $9.40 basis for the November contract a formidable level to
overcome without a fresh catalyst to attract buyers.

  However, downside pressure was limited, as the uncertainty of final crop
yields with an extended growing season needed for Midwest soybeans to reach
potential an underpinning feature. Meanwhile, solid export demand is another
factor that softens the blow of big crop outlooks, a CBOT floor analyst said.

  The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday announced private export
sales of 110,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China in the 2009-10
marketing year.

  The USDA is scheduled to release its September crop report at 8:30 a.m. EDT
(1230 GMT) Friday. The average of 22 analyst estimates puts crop size at 3.256
billion bushels with a yield of 42.4 bushels per acre. The averages ranged from
3.186 billion to 3.309 billion bushels for production and 41.5 to 43.1 for
yields.

  The DTN Meteorlogix Weather forecast for the Midwest calls for temperatures
to continue on a normal-to-above-normal track through the end of the weekend.
Weekend temperatures will also range near to above normal.

  Upper air forecast maps indicate continued mild conditions for the main U.S.
crop areas during the time period ending Sept. 19. There is no threat of
freezing temperatures through the next 10 days in the U.S. corn and soybean
belt, Meteorlogix said.

   Soy Products


  Soy product futures ended mixed, with soymeal supported by tight supplies and
solid demand. Soymeal managed to regain some product share on adjustments in
the meal/oil spread relationship.

  Soyoil futures stumbled, retreating on meal/oil spreading. Spillover support
from firmer crude oil futures was not enough to offset the weight of spreads,
with pressure from large soyoil stocks aiding the defensive theme, analysts
said.

  December oil share was 37.58%, while the November/December soybean crush
ended at 76 1/4 cents.


  

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