SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Despite U.S. soybean supply shrinking to near record lows following a surge in import demand from China this year, and previous weather-related crop reductions in South America, the global market could well be heading for a supply glut of millions of tons above global consumption forecasts next year, a senior agricultural commodities consultant said Thursday. "The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting a near record U.S. crop - around 88 million tons - while Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay between them could produce more than 120 million tons, following last year's drought. We're looking at the potential for a big oversupply situation. We could be looking at an oversupply of more than 19 million tons above what the USDA is forecasting global consumption to be at next year," said John Baize, president of John C. Baize and Associates. "Farmers who are selling soybeans now at $10.00-$11.00/bushel, by April could be glad to be getting $8.00/bushel. They could even be getting less." A combination of a bumper U.S. crop and increased plantings in South America by farmers who lost money because of last crop year's drought would likely be behind any potential surge in output next year, Baize said. But "there are also other factors at play - if an El Nino develops, then it could hit palm oil output in Malaysia and Indonesia, which would increase demand for soyoil, though an El Nino, if it happens, usually brings more rain to South America, which would be beneficial to soybean crops there," Baize said.
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
29150.00 | + 700 | 29160.00 | + 660 |
ПФО |
27950.00 | + 300 | 28050.00 | + 50 |
СКФО |
28700.00 | + 500 | 28950.00 | - 50 |
ЮФО |
28150.00 | - 200 | 28950.00 | - 50 |
СФО |
28400.00 | - 100 | 28300.00 | - 200 |
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
71000.00 | + 850 | 73250.00 | + 1380 |
ЮФО |
69800.00 | + 200 | 74000.00 | + 3500 |
ПФО |
71000.00 | + 1450 | 73000.00 | + 2950 |
СФО |
72000.00 | + 1800 | 75000.00 | + 4500 |
Обсуждение