SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Cash grain prices in Asia will likely stay mostly firm
in the coming days, with producers and consumers alike continuing to monitor
drought-related crop damage in some countries along with the lingering prospect
of an El Nino weather situation.

  Drought in China's northeast corn growing provinces is expected to cut corn
output by around 15 million metric tons and has helped push prices to levels
above the government's weekly auction price. Last year, China produced 165.9
million tons of corn.

  Expectations of lower output have helped underpin prices and also helped
boost auction sales to 1.92 million tons or 77% of the 2.5 million tons planned
- the highest level since the auctions began in July.

  China's corn prices, which rose in the week to Wednesday in Harbin and
Heilongjiang provinces, were around CNY1,580/ton, up from CNY1,550/ton a week
ago, and are likely to stay firm with feedmill demand likely to rise ahead of
holidays in the country, a time processors usually top up their stocks, traders
said.

  China's soybean sales remain sluggish, however, with traders opting for the
sidelines amid sentiment the government is working on a program to provide
subsidies to soybean crushers, participants said.

  In Australia, wheat output could fall to around 20 million to 21 million
tons, down from estimates last week of 22 million to 23 million tons, though
production could still go either way depending on rainfall, analysts said.

  Australia's wheat output in the last crop year ended March 31, 2009, was 21.4
million tons.

  Meanwhile, rice prices in Asia are likely to stay firm in the near term,
despite already high stockpiles in Thailand and Vietnam - the world's largest
and second largest exporters - and expected bumper crops when the main harvest
gets underway in November.

  "The whole situation surrounding India's drought is good news for other
(rice) exporters. Thai rice exports to Africa alone have doubled in recent
weeks to 400,000 tons a month and will likely stay at that level until the end
of the year," said Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Rice Exporters
Association of Thailand.

  Thai 5% white rice is currently being offered around $580/ton.

  "If demand stays as it is, I don't expect (Thai) white rice prices to fall
below $500/ton even when the main harvest gets underway in November. Prices
could even rise to $700/ton," said Vichai Sriprasert, president of
Bangkok-based Riceland International Co.

  The drought in India is expected to cut summer-sown rice output by around 10
million tons and has enabled both Thailand and Vietnam to step up exports to
countries India normally supplies.

  Until an export ban was imposed in 2008 amid supply worries and rising prices
then, India had been the world's second largest rice exporter.

  Late rains in August have helped resume sowing in India's Uttar Pradesh
state, but rice production from the summer-sown crop this year could be less
than half of what was produced last year as farmers are nearly 45 days behind
schedule in planting.

  Still, despite the generally bullish outlook for grain prices in Asia,
Chicago Board of Trade futures were weaker in thin volumes in Asian trading
Wednesday.

  "CBOT wheat and corn futures particularly continue to be dragged down by
expectations for good crops in the U.S. and generally sluggish global demand,"
said Koname Gokon, a commodities analyst with Okato Shoji Co.

  At 0911 GMT, e-CBOT's September corn contract was trading 1.40 cents lower at
$3.10/bushel, while September wheat was down 1.60 cents at $4.57/bushel.