02:16, 22.08.2009 — Новости
автор: OilWorld.Ru

DJ US Cash Grain Review: Wheat/Soy Prices Fall; Oil Underpins Corn (ENG)


By Gary Wulf
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

  SUPERIOR, Neb. (Dow Jones)--Wheat prices crumbled across the U.S. grain
market this week, shedding another 3% to 6% of their cash-value, to leave
average elevator bids for high-protein varieties at their lowest levels in
about 2 1/2 years. Farm-gate soybean prices also lost 2% of their net-worth,
although corn rose 1%.
   WHEAT

  September wheat contracts at U.S. futures exchanges closed about 15 cents to
22 cents a bushel lower on the week, returning the value of Hard Red
Winter/Hard Red Spring wheat to early 2007 levels and leaving Soft Red Winter
prices at their lowest mark since late last year, as well.

  "Ample global and domestic supplies of wheat continue to weigh on a commodity
that lacks aggressive buyers," said Brian Henry of Archer Financial Services.
"Additionally, the dark cloud regarding the possibility of a massive
liquidation of index fund longs [from the CBOT SRW market] has once again moved
to the forefront."

  Continued harvest pressure sent domestic winter wheat basis down by an
average of around 1 cent, although interior spring wheat premiums rose 3/4
cent, with northern farmers behind schedule on combining that late-maturing
crop.

  One of the few bullish developments in the wheat market occurred at mid-week,
when Egypt purchased 4.4 million bushels of US SRW wheat in a widely watched
global tender.

  "U.S. wheat has become more competitive on the latest price declines," said
the CME Group. "Egypt is regarded as the lynchpin of the big wheat import
market in the Mediterranean Basin and they had refused offers of U.S. wheat for
several months."

  CIF SRW basis at ports in the Louisiana Gulf - where much of that particular
class of wheat is lifted for export - strengthened by 15 cents to 30 cents a
bushel this week.
   SOYBEANS

  Cash soybean prices briefly tumbled to late July lows, prior to a partial
late recovery that limited losses to a little more than 20 cents a bushel for
the week.

  November CBOT soybean contracts dipped 8 1/2 cents, during the trading
period.

  "It now appears that old-crop may not even be as tight as many people
thought," said eHedger analyst Justin Kelly. "In addition, basis levels are not
as strong as they would be, if beans were genuinely as tight as many analysts
have claimed."

  Losses incurred by domestic soybean basis - averaging a full 13 cents per
bushel - were actually greater than those suffered by the futures market, this
week.

  "Soybean basis took a huge hit this week," said basis analyst Kevin McNew of
Cash Grain Bids Inc. "Higher barge [freight] rates, coupled with a 40-cent drop
in Gulf [export] basis took a significant toll on soybean basis around the
river system."

  Basis represents discounts/premiums applied to spot futures contracts in
order to calculate cash market prices. Basis fluctuations are dependent on a
wide variety of local supply/demand factors such as production, consumption,
farmer selling, storage space, and most importantly, transportation costs.
   CORN

  Cash corn became the lone bullish holdout this week, with a 2 1/2 cent
appreciation in September futures bolstered by a 1 cent to 2 cent improvement
in interior/export basis.

  "The gains in crude oil have helped push corn prices higher, despite
generally favorable crop weather," said Doane Agricultural Services. "Crude oil
was boosted by reports ... that oil stocks are down nearly 2.4% from last
week."

  Corn and crude oil futures often mirror one another, due to the intrinsic
relationship of the ethanol - a major fuel-extender - with the gasoline
industry. Crude oil futures climbed more than $4 this week, to approach $74 per
barrel.

   Crop Weather


  Rain showers were seen in the Deep South and Great Lakes regions late Friday.

  "Elsewhere, dry weather favors small grain harvesting (on the northern
Plains) and summer crop development," said U.S. Department of Agriculture
agricultural meteorologist Brad Rippey, who added that in the South, "scattered
showers and thunderstorms are slowing harvest activities for crops such as rice
and corn."

  Meanwhile, hot, dry weather was advancing the small grains harvest of the
Pacific Northwest.

  "The Corn Belt will experience several days of dry weather, accompanied by a
warming trend," forecast Rippey. "By early next week, near- to above-normal
temperatures will prevail nearly nationwide."

  

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