--Faced with overbought conditions, lack of fresh export news to attract buyers
--Traders are on alert for some sort of turnaround with soy futures technically overbought
--Market has adequately factored in solid export demand and crop threats in South America
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--U.S. soybean futures are expected to open lower Thursday, fueled by traders taking profits on recent sharp gains.
Analysts project soybeans to open 3 cents to 5 cents lower on the Chicago Board of Trade.
In overnight trade, soybeans for May delivery were down 4 3/4 cents to $13.15 1/4 per bushel.
May soybean meal was down $1.30 to $351.60 per short ton, and May soybean oil was down 0.08 cent to 54.39 cents per pound.
The market has risen 11%, climbing to five-month highs since Jan. 30, but struggled overnight in the face of overbought conditions and a lack of fresh export news to attract buyers.
Traders are on alert for some sort of turnaround with soy futures technically overbought and an improved Argentine rainfall pattern since mid January allowing for a modest recovery in crops and yields.
The February rally in soybeans was initially fueled by drought concerns in South America, particularly southern Brazil. That drove expectations that the U.S. would see more export demand, and more recently there has been a pickup in demand.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has reinforced that trend, announcing fresh sales to China for both the current marketing year and the upcoming year in the past two weeks.
However, with little fresh news to feed bullish momentum and weekly export sales lacking any surprises, futures are expected to stabilize Thursday. Without new supportive fundamental news, traders say the market has adequately factored in solid export demand and crop threats in South America.
The USDA reported weekly net sales of 976,400 metric tons of soybeans, including 549,100 for the current marketing year. The old crop sales were down 53% from the previous week.
Analysts were expecting total sales between 900,000 and 1.3 million metric tons.
Overall soybean export sales came in on the low end of expectations, and these numbers suggest fairly strongly that on higher prices the demand is walking-away or staying on the sidelines, said Mike Zuzolo, president Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting.
"I think this fundamental is something that needs to be traded in the short-term and we'll be looking for this in today's trade," he added.
Otherwise, the need for soy prices to remain competitive with corn to secure enough 2012 acres to maintain adequate supplies will continue to support new crop prices. Traders continue to shift their focus to new crop planting potential, with USDA forecasting a hefty increase in corn acres at the expense of other crops in 2012.
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
29150.00 | + 700 | 29160.00 | + 660 |
ПФО |
27950.00 | + 300 | 28050.00 | + 50 |
СКФО |
28700.00 | + 500 | 28950.00 | - 50 |
ЮФО |
28150.00 | - 200 | 28950.00 | - 50 |
СФО |
28400.00 | - 100 | 28300.00 | - 200 |
Регион | Закуп. | Изм. | Прод. | Изм. |
---|---|---|---|---|
ЦФО |
71000.00 | + 850 | 73250.00 | + 1380 |
ЮФО |
69800.00 | + 200 | 74000.00 | + 3500 |
ПФО |
71000.00 | + 1450 | 73000.00 | + 2950 |
СФО |
72000.00 | + 1800 | 75000.00 | + 4500 |
Обсуждение